A Simple Scoring Model Predicting the Outcome of COVID-19 Patients: Tanta COVID Score.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic with high rates of morbidity and mortality, and an uncertain prognosis leading to an increased risk of infection in health providers and limited hospital care capacities. In this study, we have proposed a predictive, interpretable prognosis scoring system with the use of readily obtained clinical, radiological and laboratory characteristics to accurately predict worsening of the condition and overall survival of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a single-center, observational, prospective, cohort study. A total of 347 patients infected with COVID-19 presenting to the Tanta University Hospital, Egypt, were enrolled in the study, and clinical, radiological and laboratory data were analyzed. Top-ranked variables were identified and selected to be integrated into a Cox regression model, building the scoring system for accurate prediction of the prognosis of patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: The six variables that were finally selected in the scoring system were lymphopenia, serum CRP, ferritin, D-Dimer, radiological CT lung findings and associated chronic debilitating disease. The scoring system discriminated risk groups with either mild disease or severe illness characterized by respiratory distress (and also those with hypoxia and in need for oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation) or death. The area under the curve to estimate the discrimination performance of the scoring system was more than 90%. CONCLUSION: We proposed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model for COVID- 19 patients. However, additional independent validation will be required before the scoring model can be used commonly.

RETRACTED: Remdesivir Efficacy in COVID-19 Treatment: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: To date, no antiviral therapy has shown proven clinical effectiveness in treating patients with COVID-19. We assessed the efficacy of remdesivir in hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. Patients were randomly assigned at a 1:1 ratio to receive either remdesivir (200 mg on the first day followed by 100 mg daily for the next 9 days intravenously infused over 30-60 minutes) in addition to standard care or standard care alone. The primary outcomes were the length of hospital stay and mortality rate. The need for mechanical ventilation was assessed as a secondary outcome. Two hundred patients (100 in each group) completed the study and were included in the final analysis. The remdesivir group showed a significantly lower median duration of hospital stay (10 days) than the control group (16 days; P < 0.001). Eleven of the patients in the remdesivir group needed mechanical ventilation compared with eight patients in the control group (P = 0.469). The mortality rate was comparable between the two groups (P = 0.602). Mortality was significantly associated with older age, elevated C-reactive protein levels, elevated D-dimer, and the need for mechanical ventilation (P = 0.039, 0.003, 0.001, and < 0.001 respectively). Remdesivir had a positive influence on length of hospital stay, but it had no mortality benefit in Egyptian patients with COVID-19. Its use, in addition to standard care including dexamethasone, should be considered, particularly in low- and middle-income countries when other effective options are scarce.